Thursday, September 8, 2011

NFL Week 1 Picks - Vegas Style

With the first NFL season beginning since the inception of The Daily Darsh mere hours away, I'm going to release my Week 1 picks. While I don't have my own phone line for these picks and don't scream in a hysterical fashion when I tell you my picks, they are solid. Coming from the proud gambling heritage of Thomas S. Wootton High School, where education was secondary to gambling, I've won more than my fair share of games...and more importantly, I've won more than I've lost. So here we go:

The Vegas of the East

WINNERS IN BOLD

New Orleans Saints (+4.5) vs. Green Bay Packers

While Roger Goodell and the NFL gods gave us a great game to start off the NFL season, the line Vegas gave was weak..very weak. Picking the Saints +4.5 is a tough choice, but this game is pretty much even. Whichever team that wins will win by more than a touchdown and in this game, it's going to be the Saints.

Saints 31 Packers 20

Pittsbugh Steelers (+1.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

Yes, this game is in Baltimore. But why would you ever bet against the Steelers when they play the Ravens, especially considering recent history and the fact that the Ravens' offensive line is a turnstile for Steeler pass rushers to get to Joe Flacco. Also, expect a big day from the Steelers' receivers, who are going up against a very inexperienced secondary in Baltimore.

Steelers 20 Ravens 9

Expect more of this...

Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.0)

And now the new Houston Texans of the NFL are the Detroit Lions. While the Lions are headed in the right direction, they are not there yet. Give them time, they're still a very young team and will need more than just a few intimidating defensive lineman and a top-3 receiver to make the playoffs. The Buccaneers are a much more complete team with Josh Freeman, LeGarrette Blount, and Mike Williams on offense. However, the Buccaneers defensive front seven could be a weakness considering its youth, but Jahvid Best hasn't done anything since the first game of last year.

Buccaneers 17 Lions 13

Atlanta Falcons (-3.0) @ Chicago Bears

This seems awfully disrespectful at first: the Bears are coming back from an appearance in a NFC Championship game and are at home. However, the Falcons are probably the most explosive offense after adding former Alabama WR Julio Jones. The weather conditions in Chicago on Sunday probably aren't going to be dreadful like they will be in December and the Falcons' offense should fly.

Falcons 28 Bears 13

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City (-6.0)

The Chiefs should win this game handily provided Matt Cassel plays. If Cassel doesn't play, then all bets are off although Tyler Palko has looked good in the Preseason. Let's just hope they don't have to put in Ricky Stanzi. The Bills, after trading Lee Evans, are extremely reliant on Steve Johnson and CJ Spiller. While I trust Johnson (although he blames God for his hands), I don't trust Spiller.

Chiefs 17 Bills 9

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-8.5)

The big story in this game is obviously the absence of Peyton Manning. If the Texans don't win this game, they don't deserve to win the division, and probably deserve to be kicked out of the NFL.

Let's hope Curtis Painter doesn't see the field this Sunday or ever.

Texans 38 Colts 13

Philadelphia Eagles @ St. Louis Rams (+4.5)

No, the Rams won't win this game, but it'll be closer than many people think. All the pundits are going gaga over the Eagles' offseason additions, but I trust the Rams' defense more than I trust their offense. Bradford is not an elite quarterback, yet. That offense, other than Steven Jackson, does not have anyone that strikes fear into any defense, unless you think Mike Sims-Walker is the second coming of Randy Moss and Danny Amendola to be the new Wes Welker. They're not. However, Chris Long and the Rams' defense will be even better after another year under Steve Spagnuolo.

Eagles 17 Rams 14

Tennessee Titans (+1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Neither quarterback is going to do much this game. Matt Hasselbeck won't because the Titans need Chris Johnson to produce worth his contract and Luke McCown won't because he's...Luke McCown. Both running backs are going to be running for 100+ this game, but the Titans have a little bit more firepower than the Jaguars. P.S. Way to go Jacksonville for releasing David Garrard the one year Peyton Manning is going to miss a significant number of games..

Titans 14 Jaguars 3


Carolina Panthers  (+7.0) @ Arizona Cardinals

The Cam Newton lovefest begins. No, not really, but I don't think the Panthers will be as bad as last year when they had world beaters Jake Delhomme and Matt Moore at Quarterback. Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart should be able to replicate the success of two years ago and Greg Olsen was a huge addition. The Cardinals should still win this game, but I just don't trust Kevin Kolb yet....not after 5 games with the Eagles.

Cardinals 16 Panthers 13

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (-6.5)


The Browns should win this game by 30. However, the Browns defense is nowhere near the caliber of a NFL defense. On the other hand, the Bengals' offense is nowhere near a college offense. Watch for Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty to run roughshod.


Browns 23 Bengals 10

If Hillis can't get it done, expect to see more Hardesty.


Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)

As long as the Seahawks start Tarvaris Jackson, I don't expect them to win any games. If Pete Carroll starts Charlie Whitehurst, then I'll start paying attention. The Harbaugh era will get off to a good start in San Francisco.

49ers 20 Seahawks 10

Minnesota Vikings @ San Diego Chargers (-9.0)

After starting slow out of the gates for the last 300 years, the pressure seems to finally have hit the Chargers. It's put up or shut up time for Norv Turner. While Ryan Matthews is as unreliable as ever, Philip Rivers should have a huge day. The Vikings don't stand a chance in this game. Adrian Peterson is still the best running back in the league, but remember the Chargers return the #1 defense in the league from last year. However, Donovan McNabb is at the point in his career where he can't elevate the play of his receivers around him.

Chargers 30 Vikings 10

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets (-4.5)

The annual hype-fest of the Cowboys has begun. Too bad their first game is against the Jets. The Cowboys will be missing Michael Jenkins, Terence Newman, and Tyron Smith...so both starting corners are out and there will be two rookies and a journeyman starting on the offensive line. This might be a blowout, especially since the Jets will be playing with the emotional fans on 9/11 behind them.

Jets 33 Cowboys 20

New England Patriots (-7.0) @ Miami Dolphins

We will finally find out whether the offseason additions of Chad Johnson (I refuse to call him Chad Ochocinco) and Albert Haynesworth will pay off for the Patriots. The defense should be better for the Patriots and while all the pieces might not gel yet, they do play a Dolphins team that is reluctantly starting Chad Henne after failing to acquire Kyle Orton. BTW did I add that head coach Tony Sparano and general manager Jeff Ireland are on the hotseat? So much for the Parcells tree.

Patriots 38 Dolphins 7

Oakland Raiders (+3.0) @ Denver Broncos

Darren McFadden in 2010 put up 274 yards and 3 TD's against the Broncos. Expect more of the same even though the Broncos defense is now headed by John Fox. Kyle Orton and the Broncos will be playing catchup and will put up a ton of passing yards. Too bad the defense is just not there yet. Expect the Raiders to run right at Von Miller, a good pass rusher, but terrible in run support.

Raiders 27 Broncos 20

New York Giants @ Washington Redskins (+3.0)

I think the Redskins win this game and here's why: the Giants defense is more beat up than Rihanna post-Chris Brown. Led by raging sex-pot Rex Grossman, the Redskins should be able to withstand the loss of Laron Landry and Chris Cooley for at least one week. The real winners of this game are the citizens of this great nation. On the ten year anniversary of 9/11, football is back and better than ever. RIP all the victims of 9/11 and all hail the firefighters, police, and all the heroes of that infamous day. Also, all HAIL TO THE REDSKINS!

Redskins 23 Giants 20

Rex Grossman in his best of times


LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

No comments:

Post a Comment