Wednesday, March 23, 2011

The Bound to Go Wrong Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Preview

I'll preface this by saying that I probably had the worst picks in the history of picking games...ever over the first weekend. I am down 8 Sweet 16 teams, 5 Elite 8 teams, 2 Final 4 teams, and my champion - thank you Notre Dame for nothing. Nevertheless, since I did not bet on these games this year - thank god - I am back to picking games because I can.

Will Brad Stevens take over for Bruce Pearl?
The first several rounds were perhaps the most interesting and most absurd in the history of the tournament. I've never seen this many upsets and this many close games. Every game went down to the wire. Everyone will point to the parity and celebrate it, but there's also a factor that people are overlooking...THERE IS A MAJOR LACK OF TALENT IN COLLEGE BASKETBALL! There are a lot of good players and they go to many schools. The NBA one-and-done rule has effectively ended any chance of teams with several NBA prospects growing together VCU, Richmond, and Butler (once again, here we go) getting into the Sweet 16 is a testament to this.                                                        
Or will Shaka Smart head to Knoxville?
The fact that Morehead State was able to beat Louisville, which no one will doubt has superior athletes and players, is that coaching, systems, and style of play is now of utmost importance. Morehead State's head coach Donnie Tyndall actually spent time in Louisville practices learning the Louisville press system and employed it beautifully to beat his mentor Rick Pitino. Before the whole hoopla with the fouls in the Butler-Pittsburgh game, Butler coach Brad Stevens drew up an amazing play to get an easy layup for his Bulldogs to take the lead.

Lost to his pupil, then got humiliated by Barkley. Gotta love it.
 Finally, before I move on to the upcoming week, how overrated is the Big East? 11 teams entered the tournament - 2 remain. I know four of them played each other, but still this is no testament to the league's might. Take a look at the other major conferences and see how they fared. Guarantee you it's a lot better than <20%.

Sweet 16 Winners

Ohio State 1, North Carolina 2, Duke 1, Connecticut 3, Kansas 1, VCU 11, Butler 8, BYU 3 

  • In their game against George Mason, Ohio State looked like a professional team. It's hard to beat a team with a dominant big man and lights out three point shooting. They look dominant right now.
  • North Carolina should have its way with Marquette. Marquette has been in nearly every game it has played this year, but North Carolina's front line is too long, too talented, and too intense for Marquette. Harrison Barnes is solidifying his Top 3 positioning in the NBA draft especially after his last performance against Washington. Rumors out of Chapel Hill say he might consider staying another year if the Heels don't win the championship. (For the Wizards sake, please come out Barnes).
  • It's going to take a near perfect game to beat Duke. The Dukies did not play that well against Michigan and still they won, albeit in the last several seconds. Kyrie Irving is going to show his worth in this tournament. He already made a clutch play late in the game against the Wolverines, but I expect him to get more use this weekend as I think he's finally shaken the rust off.
  • Despite San Diego's State's every attempt to lose that game against Temple, they won. And now they run into a UConn team in Anaheim. San Diego State has a major home court advantage, but I think Kemba Walker is on a mission...to get his team to the Final Four. Kawhi Leonard needs to step his game up for San Diego State to have a chance.
  • Kansas might beat Richmond by 30, BUT this is exactly the type of team that Kansas has had trouble with in the past - lower seeded, fundamentally solid, slow the game down type of teams. We'll see if Rock Chalk can stop losing to much lower seeds in the tournament and shake the demons of Bucknell and Ali Faroukh Manesh.
  • VCU-Florida State is going to be a blowout regardless of who wins. Either VCU is going to dominate the Seminoles and run through them, around them, over them, under them, etc. like they did against Purdue and Georgetown or Florida State or Florida State's defense is going to suffocate VCU that Shaka Smart is going to have to make up new motivational quotes.
  • I really want to see Butler win. I know many people are aggravated after their bracketbusting ways against Pittsburgh, but this team has Big Game experience and Brad Stevens is probably a Top 3 Coach in the country. Yes I said it.
  • Did you really think I was going to pick against Jimmer? I got Jimmer mania...so does everyone else. BYU played as good a game as they could have played against Gonzaga and it's important for them not to have a letdown.
My Final Four picks at this point (bound to be wrong): Ohio State, Duke, Kansas, BYU 
Championship Game: BYU over Ohio State - MVP: Jimmer.  

Joseph Smith would be proud. 

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